...NEGATIVE EVIDENCE
Scientific Evidence of Climate Change
Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, which was only 280 parts per million in the air in the 1700s, increased by 43% with the rapid increase in the consumption of fossil fuels after the industrial revolution, exceeding 400 parts per million in 2015. We continue to consume the fossil fuels we depend on in modern life at an increasing rate, and as we burn fossil fuels, an increasing amount of carbon dioxide is released into the air.
Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it causes the world to warm up, climate change, and natural balance and cycles to deteriorate. There is already a 1 degree increase in average temperatures around the world, and this increase continues rapidly.
There is an increase in temperatures unprecedented in the last 1000 years, and the increase in temperature and fossil fuel consumption coincide with the same period and the same trend.
Human population growth and fossil fuel consumption growth have a similar period and similar behavior.
As the population increases, there are also exponential increases in consumption.
Exponential changes also occur in the balance cycles of nature.
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There are also exponential increases in natural disasters:
There is a huge increase in extraordinary disasters.
With each passing day, abnormal events around the world will increase in number and severity.
Those living in rural areas are living witnesses of this trend.
A rapid and serious abnormality is taking place in nature.
http://old.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/number-of-disasters-per-year_1408
These Are Not Normal Things!
Towards the end of 2015, there was very strange weather in the northern hemisphere. On December 25, the midday temperature in New York City was 22 degrees and Los Angeles was 17 degrees. Americans spent their winter holidays in the summer heat. Then came the storm, cold and floods. 28 people died in the USA due to floods, storms and tornadoes. In the floods that occurred in large areas in England, 6700 buildings were submerged. One hundred thousand people were left homeless due to floods in Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina.
As we entered 2016, polar cold weather came to both the USA and Turkey. Because a heat wave that reached the north pole over the Atlantic Ocean pushed the polar cold further south from the poles, all the way to us. And while we were experiencing minus degrees here, the temperature at the north pole, which should normally be -30 degrees, had risen to plus degrees and the ice was melting. It was the first time we witnessed ice melt in the North Pole in winter.
We are experiencing similar situations at the beginning of 2018. Now normals have changed.
On the left you see the graph of changes in the Arctic ice levels over the years. Glacier levels from 1978 to 2017 are plotted one above the other. It is evident that the levels have been decreasing with a similar trend since 1978. But in 2016 he takes a different action. After August 2016, although the glacier level should have increased as winter approached, it is decreasing and the past trend is breaking. This broken trend continues in 2017, meaning it is not returning to its previous state.
The year 2016 will have an important place in world history because we will no longer be able to live the old normal.
The poles are warming 2.5 times more than the world average, and change is naturally occurring faster at the poles. What is happening now in the poles should be an urgent warning for us.
How is the Balance of Nature and Normals Disrupted?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was established in 1950 and has been keeping track of climate data in almost every region of the world since then. In the graph below you see the average temperature change between 1950-1980.
You can observe that the adjacent graph represents an almost perfect bell curve. The majority is on average, the standard deviation is low, there is a balance and order. A balance and order had been established in the world's climate over millions of years. There were seasonal norms, spring rains, plenty of rain and snow in winter. Temperature averages were also stable across months over many years. For example, if the average temperature in June was 20 degrees, it was normal for the temperature to be between 19-21 degrees on any June day, but very rarely temperatures would be below 18 degrees or above 22 degrees. The temperature difference of 1-2 degrees did not matter either. People relied on these norms to engage in agriculture, animal husbandry and earn a living.
Now, based on the period between 1950 and 1980, let's look at the change between 1981 and 1991:
We now experience much hotter days than in the past for most of the 365 days of a year. The number of days that are 4-5 degrees above average is increasing.
The shift towards heat accelerated in the 1990s.
And the change between 2001 and 2011:
Now, on any given day of summer, the probability of days being 3-5 degrees hotter or 2-3 degrees colder than the average for many years has increased. In other words, the probability that the temperature will differ by 7-8 degrees from one day to the next has increased.
The same thing happens here as in the GPA and standard deviation example of a class. While in the past there was stability and balance in the climate and temperatures, now the situation in the class with a high standard deviation is experienced. Just as the grades in that class were jumping from one extreme to the other, today we are experiencing constant jumps in air temperatures. Even though it is winter, we see temperatures above 27 degrees in early January or over 20 degrees in mid-February, and immediately afterward, cold weather and snow can come at minus degrees. Is there anyone who hasn't noticed that we are experiencing an increase in abnormal climate events (droughts, floods, forest fires, extreme heat and extreme cold)?
So what happens in nature as a result of these jumps? All the plants are under stress, the trees that think that spring has come early are budding, and then a snow or frost causes great damage to those trees, and the productivity/abundance decreases...
I also have a share in the situation. I'm Part of the Problem Too.
I influence the course of nature and the world with my lifestyle. It may seem like I don't have much of an impact on my own, but when millions and billions of people do the same thing, it has a big impact.
In a restricted environment
increasing proliferation,
Increasing pollution,
Increasing urbanization
unsustainable
OUR EARTH AND ITS NATURAL RESOURCES ARE LIMITED.
The resources we consume, food, transportation, heating/energy needs... all together create our individual ecological footprint. Footprint also changes depending on lifestyle.
All of the world's limited resources together constitute the world's 'biocapacity'. In order to use the world's resources sustainably, we need to save, but on the contrary, both the human population and consumption are increasing. So much so that sustainable capacity was exceeded in the 1970s and is now exceeded by 40%.
In other words, we are actually consuming resources that should be left to future generations, and if this continues, our children will have to struggle to survive in a world that is overly polluted and does not have enough resources.
The graph on the right shows Turkey's biocapacity and the total ecological footprint of Turkish people. We also exceeded our country's sustainable carrying capacity in the 1970s. The soil, water, underground resources and forests that we lose, destroy and pollute are actually the lost future of our children.
Turkey's biocapacity and ecological footprint report (from footprintnetwork.org)
In the graph on the left, you see the change in precipitation over time across Türkiye. There is a decrease in rainfall over time in the regions shown in red. In the regions shown in green, there is an increase in precipitation. The places where the red color is greater are the regions where the precipitation decreases the most.
There is a decrease in rainfall throughout our country, except for the Eastern Black Sea region.
In the graph on the right, you see the change in annual average temperatures. There is an increase in temperatures in the regions shown in red. The regions in thick red are the regions that are warming the most.
There is an increase in temperatures across the country - which is consistent with the trend around the world.
Increasing Drought
For these reasons, instead of dividing, arguing and wasting time, we should mobilize together to protect our country's biocapacity, make it more resilient and fight together against the approaching great danger.
As our livelihoods are rapidly depleting, the worst thing we can do is add fuel to the fire. We do a lot of things wrong, and we all do. There's no use blaming someone else.
We must see our own mistakes and become the solution rather than the problem. However, if everyone behaves this way, there is a chance that the fire will go out. We must do as much as we can for the future of our children.
Drought situation between December 2015 and November 2017:
The map above shows what percentage of the total land area of the countries is forest. Our southern neighbors have less than 3% forests. It is 27% in our country and 37% in our northern neighbor Bulgaria. It is over 30% in all European countries receiving immigration.
Human life and the forest are more interconnected than you can imagine. Because forests have critical roles in the balance and cycle of nature. If the forest disappears, local ecosystems begin to collapse. Rainfall decreases, drought increases and eventually desertification occurs. Not many people can live in deserts because the conditions are very difficult - but those with local knowledge, skills, hard work and cooperation have a chance to survive.
One of the most important things we can do is to forestate the country. However, it is necessary to forestate with ecosystem logic, otherwise a real forest cannot be formed from thousands of trees of the same species or several species planted. While creating a forest, 'Food Forests' designs and studies can be carried out that will provide multiple benefits.
The Global Risk Report 2017, published by the World Economic Forum at the beginning of each year, examines the risks that may have a global impact in the next 10 years. 750 experts examine 30 serious global risks and 13 different trends that cause them. The 5 most important risks in the 2017 report are:
Those most likely to happen are:
extreme weather events
Forced mass migrations
Major natural disasters
Large-scale terrorist attacks
Massive data theft
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The 5 most important risks in terms of impact:
Weapons of mass destruction
extreme weather events
water crises
Major natural disasters
Failure to take precautions against climate change
SOLUTION: Transformation Towards Sustainable Living
As can be seen from the information given above, the situation is not very encouraging.
Yet life goes on, and there still seem to be no major problems in current life for many. Especially city people are unaware and disconnected from the change in nature. But as this change accelerates, it is obvious that everyone, especially urbanites, will be seriously affected. In fact, urban dwellers are already affected; with increasing food prices, problems of access to clean water, clean air, clean food, abnormal natural events (hail disaster in Istanbul on July 27, 2017)...
If we want to leave a livable world for our children and future generations, the majority must have a positive impact against the bad situation. However, individual efforts should not mean that they are useless, on the contrary, the beginning must be with individual efforts, so that we can be an example to others. As the examples increase, the possibility of a solution also increases.
I would like to end with the 'honey bird' story I shared in the trainings:
"One day, a fire breaks out in the forest. While the animals are running out of the forest, a small honey bird (it has a small long beak that sucks the essence of flowers, but can only draw a few drops of essence into its mouth) flies over the stream and takes a few drops of water from the stream and drops it on the fire. The animals that see this ' 'What do you think you're doing, what's the use?' They say, and the honey bird says, 'I am doing my part, if you do too, then maybe there will be a chance for the fire to go out.'
There is a hadith in Islam that says: 'If you know that the Doomsday will come, plant the saplings you have.' Bukhari, el-Edebul-Mufred
Presidency of Religious Affairs, Web Library, Islam in Summary, Social Relations and Duties Toward Those Around Us:
"The main goal of the Islamic religion is for people to live in peace, security and happiness in this world and to reach eternal happiness in the afterlife.
One of the basic duties of human beings, who were sent to the earth as caliphs and who were given the command of all creatures, is to protect the natural life entrusted to them. As a matter of fact, this duty is pointed out in the Quran: "... He created you from the earth (soil) and assigned you to its development." It is stated (al-Hud surah 11/61).
Accordingly, any understanding or action that would harm the natural balance is contrary to this message of the Quran. For this reason, a responsible Muslim does his best to preserve the unique order, harmony and balance in the universe and to pass it on to future generations without destroying it, and stays away from attitudes and behaviors that will disrupt and destroy them...
… Therefore, to protect nature and appreciate its value as a sign of Allah; The evil done to him was considered as ungratefulness towards Allah.
… Under normal conditions, nature maintains its ecological balance. However, this balance can be disrupted by excessive destruction and pollution of nature by human hands. In this respect, any behavior aimed at destroying nature should be perceived as an attempt to violate God's laws..."
Now let's look at what we can do individually and together. The small steps we take can lead to big results.